Risk Management

TNI regularly assesses legal; security; financial; reputational; and operational risks. Overall risks are assessed annually – in terms of probability and severity of impact and improved mitigation measures put in place, where necessary.

Below the key high probability, high impact risks addressed in 2024, and identified for 2025 are discussed.

1. Financial Sustainability

As a non-profit organization, TNI is primarily dependent on grant income, which is a perennial and priority risk the Institute must manage.

In 2024, financial sustainability remained the highest priority risk to be managed. The strategy included further reducing proportional dependence on Dutch government funding, particularly in light of the installation of a new right-wing government in June. In November, the Minister concerned informed the alliances that the government had been supporting that ‘civil society strengthening’ would no longer be the basis for Dutch development cooperation funding, while simultaneously announcing a massive 60% cut to that budget from 2026. This saw TNI invest in external support to help us with grant writing, prospecting for potential alternative sources of funding, and training up staff, particularly with respect to foundation fundraising.

The main achievements in 2024 with respect to the goal of diversifying our funding base were the increase in income from own means from 3 to 5 percent of total income representing an effective doubling of this income; three new philanthropic foundations supporting TNI directly; two new European Union-funded projects coming online which raised the proportion of total income from EU sources by 1%; and a 10% percent increase (to 23%) in the contribution to total grant income of fiscally sponsored projects, including with support from two new foundations. As a total, our income remained steady. We also made a good result in 2024, adding to our reserves, which will help us cushion the impact of the ending of Dutch government support.

In 2025, grants worth more than two thirds of our annual grant income, excluding fiscal sponsorships, come to an end. It will be critical to ensure that these are renewed or replaced where possible, with an eye on 2026 and beyond. Talks began at the end of 2024 with two of the three major government donors concerned, with indications being that new multi-annual grants will be forthcoming. We are heartened that one new foundation stepped up in 2024 already to assure us of core funding in 2025, with the possibility of extending this for 10 years. We are also seeing more foundations willing to provide multi-annual and less restrictive grants.

The biggest challenge for 2025 will be replacing the Euro 2 million per year from 2026 that TNI has been receiving from the Dutch government. To this end, our goal remains to increase the proportion of income derived from private foundations, and to actively secure multi-annual, unrestricted funding wherever possible. We will continue to invest in the services of the external fundraising consultant to help us with this. We will also double down on efforts to increase own income as the ultimate guarantor of our sustainability and independence. These are difficult times, however, in an increasingly competitive and fast changing funding landscape.

Most unfortunately and despite our best efforts, TNI anticipates that a reorganisation will be necessary to get the institute onto a more sustainable footing from 2026. Every effort will be made to minimise job losses and to support those people who will be affected, including through prudent use of our reserves, built with just such a moment in mind. Meanwhile, an elected staff working group is tasked with coming up with recommendations for the Director on measures that would help TNI sustain its capacity to fulfil its mission, meet its existing obligations and grow back stronger than ever.

2. Transitions

As part of managing risks associated with organisational change, we set goals in 2024 which focused on further training in project development and fundraising, integration of the new members of the fellowship, and the acquisition of ISO 9001 certification. We also anticipated the need for a transition plan as senior staff approach retirement age in the coming years.

Fundraising training in 2024 produced some good results in terms of the successful acquisition of new grants, and we are hopeful for others still pending.

With respect to integration of new members of the fellowship, we saw regular monthly meetings of the fellowship throughout the year, a consolidation around the 50th anniversary celebrations, and the development of organic linkages between fellows and ongoing programmatic work, particularly in relation to digital political economy, green industrial policy and through solidarity work with Palestine.

We were very pleased to acquire ISO 9001 certification for the first time, too, attesting to the professional standards and commitment to ongoing improvement of internal systems at TNI.

Meanwhile, our first retirement took place at the end of 2024, with the next occurring in early 2025. In the case of the first, the staff member is not to be replaced due to a lack of sufficient funds, and the project will need to reassess its priorities to cope with reduced capacity. In the case of the second retirement, we were fortunate to find a well qualified successor able to start in time, with induction and the transition being aided enormously with the former colleague offering to remain in a voluntary support role for the foreseeable future. The next round of retirements will take place in 2026, and the aim is to have a clear transition plan in this regard finalised by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, with the reorganisation that will take place in 2025, there will be organisational implications both programmatically and in terms of reduced capacity. A transition plan in this regard will be developed to ensure that there is a smooth handover of responsibilities and information on the part of departing staff, that TNI retains the capacity to keep essential operations running and to meet its existing obligations, and that those staff who will leave TNI at the end of 2025 are assisted in transitioning to satisfactory alternative employment as soon as possible.

3. Security and safety

In 2024, TNI remained vigilant with respect to security and safety under conditions of increased repression.

We take cyber security very seriously, and completed the introduction of two factor authentication for access to all key applications TNI staff must use. We also completed the review our Information Technology Security Policy, and will revise this in 2025 with a view to making it both more fit for purpose and more user friendly.

Meanwhile, the general climate of repression worsened in 2024 in a number of countries where TNI has team members, fellows and partners. In Myanmar, friends and allies continue to face a brutal regime at war with its people. In Russia, a member of our Fellowship was released then promptly rearrested in Russia in 2024 and subsequently sentenced to 5 years jail for his analysis of developments in the war on Ukraine. TNI ensured his book – completed just before he was arrested – was published. We also helped a high profile international conference to highlight his work as well as the authoritarian nature of the Russian regime. Another member of the Fellowship had to flee the war in Sudan and one of our graphic artists had to seek refuge outside of Lebanon as Israeli bombs rained down there. Israeli continues its genocide against Palestinians, and in many places expressions of solidarity are suppressed, discredited and even criminalised. We also saw unprecedented levels of harassment, detentions and threats of deportation of civil society delegates attending the WTO Ministerial Conference in the United Arab Emirates in 2024.

TNI believes the best defence is offence in these cases. It has taken every opportunity to use the space it has to speak out in denunciation of exclusion, repression and outright atrocities on the part of states.

In 2025, we anticipate these trends will worsen and will continue to do cyber security education and assure the safety of our staff.